How do you rule this out with your research design? The National Bureau of Economic Research determines business cycle stages using quarterly GDP growth rates. It also uses monthly economic indicators, such as employment, real personal income, industrial production, and retail sales. The government manages the business cycle. Governments may have little ability to do this if they are overburdened with debt.

The difference between inflation and deflation. The business cycle is the natural rise and fall of economic growth that occurs over time.

Cloudflare Ray ID: 5ed8bbca3ee206fd If you find that they didn’t show a reduction in smoking even though they did experience the same Surgeon General report you have effectively “ruled out” the Surgeon General’s report as a plausible alternative explanation for why you observed the smoking reduction.

Congressional Research Service. Firms begin hiring and may eventually invest in more capacity as demand heats up. The law of cause and effect states that:. Accessed July 16, 2020. Businesses wait to hire new workers until they are sure the recession is over. Stocks enter a bear market as investors sell.. Cause: weak material . Accessed July 16, 2020. Which statements best describe how governments respond to changes in the business cycle? An expansion is between the trough and the peak. "The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Procedure: Frequently Asked Questions." "Unemployment in October 2009."

The business cycle goes through four major phases: expansion, peak, contraction, and trough. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Pages 5-8. It should be strong enough to create jobs for everyone who wants one but slow enough to avoid inflation. Alternatively, points can be presented in terms of emphasis, from least important to most important, or vice versa.

The 2008 recession was so nasty because the economy immediately contracted 2.3% in the first quarter of 2008. This can cause losses for all suppliers who quickly cutback production by laying off employees or reducing hours. Trochim. A repeated pattern of economic expansion, crisis, recession and recovery that is considered a pervasive feature of the global economy. News of layoffs can further reduce consumer confidence. In most applied social research that involves evaluating programs, temporal precedence is not a difficult criterion to meet because you administer the program before you measure effects.

In order for you to argue that you have demonstrated internal validity — that you have shown there’s a causal relationship — you have to “rule out” the plausible alternative explanations. Stanford University. Gain insights you need with unlimited questions and unlimited responses.

In many cases, an effect can result from many causes and the exact nature of these relationships can be difficult to determine. All rights reserved. It turns out that in this kind of cyclical situation involving ongoing processes that interact that both may cause and, in turn, be affected by the other. The task of an entrepreneur is to detect and solve them.

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